Why the Pies will beat the Cats tonight

The cats have won 2 out of 7 games under lights at the MCG since 1999 
The last time the cats won under lights at the MCG was the 2004 sf v essendon 
The last time the cats played at the MCG under lights was against collingwood in 2006, losing by 102 points 
That game was played the week after collingwood lost narrowly in a tough match against west coast in subiaco. Geelong went in favourite and everyone thought our players wouldn’t get up after the return trip.

Our recent record under lights at the ‘G is 9-3. two of those losses were against richmond and brisbane this year, which we can mark down as anomalies.

In our last 5 games against geelong, our record is 3-2. One of those 2 losses was this year. The other was in 2004 at telstra dome, in a year we finished bottom 4 and geelong finished top 4. The game Didak’s jaw was broken. Julian Rowe was in our best 22. Enough said.

Every year since 2003, a team not having a week off has played in the grand final.3 of the last 4 premiers didn’t have the week off. The one that did was Port, who arguably couldn’t have sustained another finals defeat.

In 2002, Port finished on top with 18 wins. Collingwood finished 4th with only 13 wins. We had just lost to the bulldogs by 41 points. We had lost the previous encounter against Port at the same ground by 2 goals. No buckley. We came in as rank outsiders – a bunch of triers against superstars. We won by 13 points. Licuria had a career high 40 possessions. The game was saved by a desperate ben johnson tackle.

In 2007, Geelong finished with 18 wins. Collingwood finished 6th with 13 wins. We lost the previous encounter by 2 goals at the same ground. We are $3.70 to win. This game is shades of that 2002 1st qualifying final. Who will be the licuria and ben johnson of 2007?

If we win, we will be the first side to ever make a grand final after 3 successive finals wins. Only adelaide has made a grand final outside the top 4, and that was with a double chance under the rules for that year. They won.

If we win, we are one win from what would surely be the greatest and unlikeliest premiership victory in AFL/VFL history.

If this doesn’t fire you up, I don’t know what will.

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